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Radio Ratings Predictions


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OFFLINE   Sub #21

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Posted 04 March 2010 - 09:46 PM

Continuing the predictions thread after Survey 1, for Sydney and Melbourne's Mix I'd like to think they'll pull through closer to the end of 2010. The reason I have hope in the stations is because ARN seems to hang onto new concepts longer than Austereo. In other words, by ARN allowing time for its listeners to re-adjust this will eventually lead to an increase in the younger listeners.

... If 2/3MMM had the same results as Mix in the latest survey, then we would all realise without any official announcement that it would be time for a format change ...

Speaking of the M's, if it ain't broke - don't fix it. Let's hope management sticks to this format for once... and maybe it's time to rethink Adelaide or even Brisbane's Triple M if they keep losing audience.

Good luck Mix. They'll probably take advantage of some of Nova's loss in audience.

Also, I'd like to see 2UE improve with Steve Price no longer there, and in Melbourne I doubt we'll see any dramatic change in 2010 when the new 3MP launches. This probably won't have any impact until early 2011.

OFFLINE   Squee! #22

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Posted 04 March 2010 - 09:52 PM

Perth's MIX I'll predict will lose its Number 1 for at least one Survey this year. Breakfast and Drive are sounding tired.. honestly don't know how they can even appeal to under 40s with either program.

OFFLINE   PZ. #23

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Posted 05 March 2010 - 05:43 AM

It's the over 40-54 group that's keeping them going - I suspect there are more listeners in that age group than in any other - so any station doing well there should do well overall.

OFFLINE   dbrmuz #24

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Posted 15 March 2010 - 08:36 PM

Where are all the predictions for the "new" Classic Rock stations? Or at least,what they're affect on the other classic station/s will be?
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OFFLINE   tamago_otoko #25

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Posted 15 March 2010 - 09:29 PM

Expect there to be a minor increase in people sampling it, probably to the detriment of WS/Gold, who had IMO an above average survey last time round. I think the Triple M wagon is gaining momentum nicely enough to avoid losing too much, if any

I guess it just depends on whether people listen for the "classic" part or for the "rock" part, I guess. I'm saying the former will happen more than the latter
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OFFLINE   PZ. #26

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Posted 16 March 2010 - 06:52 AM

I don't think people know about the "Classic Rock" stations - so not much change there IMO.

OFFLINE   Mark #27

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Posted 16 March 2010 - 07:18 AM

hopefully it falls flat on its backside forcing a proper reevaluation of the station.

OFFLINE   dbrmuz #28

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Posted 16 March 2010 - 07:30 AM

hopefully it falls flat on its backside forcing a proper reevaluation of the station.


I still think the Classic Rock branding is only a stopgap anyway,so eventually they'll replace it.With what is a good question.
As for the ratings,I expect some sort of boost (probably minor) to flow to WS/Gold,due to the massively limited playlist on Classic Rock.

Doubt it'll affect Triple M much,though at least part of that depends on whether their gains first survey were "legit".
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OFFLINE   dbrmuz #29

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Posted 29 March 2010 - 07:54 PM

So where are all the tips for tomorrow's ratings? I'll have at least one go:2MMM-down.
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OFFLINE   Macca_87 #30

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Posted 29 March 2010 - 08:08 PM

So where are all the tips for tomorrow's ratings? I'll have at least one go:2MMM-down.



based on??

OFFLINE   dbrmuz #31

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Posted 29 March 2010 - 08:10 PM

based on??


My opinion that the last survey was one of them freak ones-and a personal dislike of the station.

Though if I'm wrong it won't be the first time.Or the last.
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OFFLINE   PZ. #32

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Posted 29 March 2010 - 10:55 PM

2Day up 0.5%
Triple J down 1%
Triple M down 0.5%
Classic Rock up 0.05% (the legal limit)
Mix down
Nova steady
2GB steady
2UE up

Using the same prediction methods as on PZ's footy tips :liar: <(ooh look - a ciggy)

OFFLINE   tamago_otoko #33

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Posted 29 March 2010 - 11:27 PM

Classic Rock up slightly, 3MMM steady or slightly up, Gold to show last survey was a fluke and drop significantly. AW to win again but Fox to be nipping at their heels
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OFFLINE   7HD #34

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Posted 14 May 2010 - 11:01 PM

My Expectations (When MTR is Officially in Ratings)


Melbourne

FOX - 14.1
3AW - 14.0
774 - 11.0 (For argument sake)
3MM - 5.1
Magic - 5.0
SEN - 4.0
MTR - 3.2

I'm not holding my breath on this
just pure speculation

Edited by Adrian90, 14 May 2010 - 11:01 PM.


OFFLINE   tamago_otoko #35

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 12:15 PM

That looks quite plausible. MTR might not do much at first, but they will get their share directly from 3AW. I also think you're right in saying 3MMM will hover around the 5% mark
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OFFLINE   Paul in Melbourne #36

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 12:53 PM

The reception problems will continue to impact on MTR and it will be hard for them to poach listeners from 3AW. It seems a lot of effort and money for a paltry 2% ratings share? The winner surely is Magic 1278 with the 3MP music audience handed over on a silver platter?

Paul in Melbourne

That looks quite plausible. MTR might not do much at first, but they will get their share directly from 3AW. I also think you're right in saying 3MMM will hover around the 5% mark



OFFLINE   TV_Expert #37

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 06:17 PM

I think this is the most appropriate thread for the following.

According to today's SMH The Guide, from Survey 4, which will be released tomorrow (22nd June), the 55+ age group will be split into two groups for the first time in radio ratings history, which will be the 55-64 & the 65+ age groups.
It will be interesting to see how 2CH & WS-FM in Sydney, for example, will rate in the 55-64 age group in contrast to the 65+ age group. I would predict that WS-FM would rate quite well in the 55-64 age group, while 2CH would dominate over the other commercial music stations in the 65+ age group.

It will be very interesting to see when the ratings get released tomorrow morning. :)
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OFFLINE   Nickatnights #38

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Posted 03 July 2010 - 11:03 AM

Who will win the 40 - 54 year olds in the long run??

I remember in 1988 when 2SM switched from being a contemporary hit station to adult orientated Lite'N'Easy 1269. Before the launch we were told by managment that they would capture the 40 something year olds as finally a station would be playing the music they wanted to hear - a soft rock playlist from the 1960s to 1980s. It never rated. In fact the station had around 60 people turning up for work every day and vitually no advertisers.

Fast forward almost 20 years and DMG pay $100M for the license that was to become vega. Again - they would tap into the 40 something market by hiring some high profile presenters and playing "40 years of music". Another failure by radio executives to understand who 40 - 54 year old are.

40 somethings are a complex and diverse group. They have high incomes and are a confident bunch. Many have young or teenage children and they have loyal friendship groups.

The most recent radio ratings shows that the top 40 - 54 year old stations are:
702 (14.9%)
WSFM (12%)
2GB (10.1%)
2UE (8.6%)
2Day (7.8%)In Melbourne the Fox is No.2 for 40 - 54 year olds.

Notice something? The 40 - 54 demographic:
- has the lowest audience share for the No.1 station. Over 65s give 2GB a 33% share and teenagers give the top two stations over 40% combined - 702 and WSFM cannot even muster 27%.
- there is no clear programming formula for 40 somethings. 702 and a to a lesser extent 2UE gives them calm discussions and a professional news service, WS focuses on hits from the past two decades, 2GB screams right wing rants and 2Day is pumping out the Top 40.

It makes me laugh when radio execs say they have finally found the secret fromula to gaining traction with this age group because this demographic have no one particular taste.

The combined share of almost 24% belonging to 702 and 2UE show that the majority enjoy quality talk and a good news service. Musically, they are very hard to define. WSFM is pumping out Crowded House and Cyndi Lauper and 2Day is serving up the latest dance yet both rate well.

Perhaps the winner in the longer run will be an FM station with a mix of good quality talk (Harmer / Catterns / Carlton are available) and some music that is drawn from around 1985 through to now - and keep the music a bit edgy (Pink is not edgy). Throw in a good news service - well resourced and with news on the hour (including the pips so people know you are taking the news seriously.

Is this what vega tried? No. First mistake vega made was to tell Sydney's 40 somethings they would love it. Secondly they had the slogan "40 years of music" which made its target audience feel old. Thirdly, it had a news service that sounded like it was read from a newspaper. The only thing DMG got right was that they said after their first dismal rating (1.8% in Sydney, 1.2% in Melbourne) that 40 somethings would take a bit of time to switch. Word of mouth would be more successful than bizarre television ads. Mind you within three months of launching the station had dumped its announcers and gone to Format No.2 - vega variety. Their breakfast team sounded as though there were 50 poeple on air and they were forced to abandon quality talk for cheap laughs. This was dispite the fact that Catterns, Squires and Wilson were not comedians.

If you want to target a demographic don't tell them what they need. Have a look at what they are actually doing (or listening to) and do it better.

If management continue to invent new formats to capture this diverse and complex group they will very soon become part of radio history with the likes of Lit'N'Easy, Gold 1269, Magic 11 and vega 95.3.
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OFFLINE   Nickatnights #39

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Posted 25 October 2010 - 04:18 PM

Sydney Survey 7 2010 - My predictions.

2GB No.1 (I am pretty sure about this one).
2CH Down - I think skewing the music younger may initially impact on their ratings, longer term the prospects are good.
Nova - Down - mainly because of the brekkie show and that everytime they play more edgy music they lose some listeners to 2Day.
2Day - Up - there is some great new music out there at the moment and 2Day's high production quality / announcers / playlist / ad free 50s will gain it some ratings points as people listen longer.
WSFM - up - mainly because they have little direct competition with over 40s on the FM dial.
Classic Rock - down - they will be luky to stay above 2%. Repetitive and lacking in energy. Announcer free radio stations are iPods with ads.
MIX - no idea. Unpredictable.
Triple M - stable - is this a rock station, talk station or sports station? Until it decides it will find it hard to rate.
2UE - up - the brekkie show is becoming competitive.

Next Monday should be interesting. The only prediciton I guarantee is the 2GB one.
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OFFLINE   dbrmuz #40

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Posted 26 October 2010 - 08:57 PM

Anyone care to guess as to what the Triple M night ratings will be like? Or is Ugly Phil's very sudden departure related to something else? :scratchchin:
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