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2012 Predictions


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OFFLINE   seanie #1

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 03:09 PM

Post your ratings predictions for 2012 here.

OFFLINE   seanie #2

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 03:10 PM

Young Talent Time may get a decent audience for the first couple of weeks, but I think it will wind up being the big dud of the first quarter. Please Marry My Boy and Excess Baggage won’t be far behind.

OFFLINE   Matlock #3

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 03:33 PM

  • Seven:
    • Please Marry My Boy will flop big time.
    • PTTR will decline thanks to poor programming choices. Winners and Losers will struggle as well. A Place to Call Home unsure.
    • AFL will give 7 a good end-of-the-week boost which will decide whether they win or lose weeks.
    • Australia's Got Talent will be flat or up in demos and total viewers.
    • Seven News will relaunch half way through the year to attempt to boost their declining East Coast ratings.
    • Home and Away will stick to around 850-900k due to more competition from Nine.
    • Seven will end the year down in both total viewers and younger demos. Seven will be 1st in total viewers and 2nd in demos.
  • Nine:
    • Nine News will win back more viewers in Melbourne and Brisbane but (of course) will struggle in Adelaide and Perth. Sydney is stable
    • The Block will perform strongly. Excess Baggage will do decent numbers, but not a 'hit'. The Voice will do well as well. Big Brother will do okay, however will not live up to Nine's expectations.
    • Tricky Business is a tricky one :laugh: but I expect 1.4 mil debut with it eventually settling between 800-900k. If it declines further it will be cancelled.
    • Hamish and Andy return to Thursday mid-year for a 20 ep run.
    • Mornings will premiere badly but if Nine keep it around long enough it will build up an audience approx 3/4 of TMS.
    • Those 2 sitcoms + 2Broke Girls do well in both new eps and repeats.
    • Nine will end the year relatively flat/up in total viewers and up in advertiser-friendly younger demos. I predict 2nd overall in total viewers and 1st in younger demos.
  • Ten:
    • Breakfast will flop. TEN News will win back more viewers but don't expect miricle ratings. The Project will be axed by the end of 2012.
    • A LOT of MediaSpy members will be disappointed by Ten's "relaunch".
    • Masterchef will continue to decline in viewers.
    • Young Talent Time will premiere well but viewership will erode very quickly, similar to It's a Knockout.
    • Ten will end the year down in both total viewers and younger demos and will be in 3rd place, however will come 4th for a good number of ratings weeks. 3rd in all demos.

Edited by tmorgan96, 01 January 2012 - 03:36 PM.


OFFLINE   MillerT1 #4

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 04:01 PM

My response to tmorgan96's thoughts:

Seven:
-Please Marry My Boy will flop. It kind of reminds me of that other show Meet My Folks and I don't think that did well either. If they launch this at 7:30, they are deluded.
-Rafters will drop further. If it is put on during MKR, it should stay stable until Easter but by then the actual show may have gotten even worse in quality.
-AFL will certainly help Seven on Saturdays where wins would have usually been a bit hard to come by.
-AGT won't be Australia's No. 1 show next year but it will still be a hit. There's just no replicating the hype that Jack Vidgen gave the show.
-Home and Away won't average over a million for the year. Don't know what it averaged this year, but I'm guessing it was over a million or close. Won't happen again.
-Seven will be first in total people but the margin won't be as big as 2011.
-Seven News will drop in total people this year.

Nine:
-Nine News will win all three East Coast cities.
-The Block will get a better series average but I think the peaks will be down (e.g. we won't get 2m watching Room Reveals and we won't get 3m for W Announced).
-Tricky Business certainly won't match early Rafters figures but it should get more than a million each week.
-As much as I think they should get another timeslot, Hamish and Andy did well enough to stay at 8:30 Thursdays. Don't think it will be 20 eps though. 10 I'd say.
-Mornings will premiere badly and I don't see it doing better than Kerri-Anne. It will be axed by the end of the year, Ellen and View will move to 9am and 10am and Nine will return the midday movie.
-Nine will be up in total viewers and all demos but they still won't win. The median age for their main channel will certainly drop.
-Excess Baggage will do okay. Not as high as Celebrity Apprentice but reasonable competition for Home and Away.

Ten:
-Breakfast will flop but I think it will become the new 7pm Project where they just persist with the bad ratings. Project will be axed sometime in 2012.
-I think a lot of people started watching MasterChef last year, heard all the negative buzz but continued to watch because they had started. This year, I think people will just not start watching and Ten will be stuck with no hit shows this year.
-Homeland will bomb and will be moved to One a few weeks after the premiere.
-The premiere episode of Young Talent Time will get Ten it's biggest audience in a while. Definitely at least 1.5m. Could stay above a million but not sure.
-Biggest Loser will have its worst rating season yet.
-In 2011, Ten got 21.4% share across their network. In 2012, it will be under 20%.

OFFLINE   Reuder7 #5

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 04:41 PM

So basically, Seven will have a BAD, terrible year, and everything on Nine will be win, win, win!?

OFFLINE   SydneySteve #6

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 05:15 PM

I might just continue on from the thoughts above.

Seven:
- I think Please Marry My Boy will do decently (I think it plays well to Seven's core markets).
- MKR will perform similarly to last year.
- Thursday nights will improve, thanks to BH&G moving to 7.30 there (that's still the plan, yes?). The weekend results will improve courtesy of the AFL.
- TT will beat ACA, except in the demos. SN will again beat 60 Minutes, although the contest will continue to be tight. Sunrise will win nationally, but still lose the east coast to Today.
- Seven will improve in Melbourne, thanks to the footy. They'll continue to struggle in Sydney but will remain strong in Brisbane. Chris Bath will have until the end of the year, before she'll be shafted (but not for Fergo).
- AGT will do well, but not as well as last year. X Factor will be down, thanks to competition from The Voice.
- DOND will be pushed to 5pm (with a new host) or rested. A new gameshow will launch at 5.30 (with struggling numbers).
- Seven will win in TP, by a smaller margin. It'll hold onto the demos too. It won't lose market share, mainly because Ten will do so poorly.

Nine:
- Nine News to win Sydney and Melbourne. It'll continue to lose Brisbane.
- The stripped reality will do good numbers, although not as high as this year. Excess Baggage will be the surprise hit of the year. Big Brother will flop.
- Karl Stefanovic will make a shift to a prime time gig, maybe to a 6.30 show on Sundays.
- Mornings will do better than KAK (how on earth could it do worse). It won't beat TMS though.

Ten:
- Breakfast will struggle, but it'll do better than the kids programming on now. They're in for the long haul anyway.
- The Project will continue to do decently for the timeslot. (Why do people keep saying it's going to get axed? Don't Ten have enough problems?)
- Something (maybe Neighbours) will be moved into the 6pm slot.
- YTT will consistently do well.
- Ten's main channel will do poorly, but the digitals will continue to improve.

OFFLINE   Matlock #7

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 05:47 PM

So basically, Seven will have a BAD, terrible year, and everything on Nine will be win, win, win!?

No. I predicted doom for Mornings and not a great result for Tricky Business and Excess Baggage. It's well known you're a Seven fan, and I am a Nine fan, so my predictions are going to favour my preference and yours are going to favour your preference.

OFFLINE   greysfan #8

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 05:59 PM

Heres what i think.

Seven:
- Please Marry Me Boy will premiere to good numbers 1.1-1.2m then slide to ratings of around 700k.
- MKR will be on par with 2011 but won't be airing on Sundays
- Winners and Losers and Rafters will be down but still very strong.
- BHG will be split, airing Thursday in the AFL States while staying on Fridays in Sydney and Brisbane helping both nights for the network.
- TT will continue to beat ACA
- Seven News will improve in Melbourne thanks to the footy but Sydney will continue to stuggle and Seven will overhaul the News Dept.
- Revenge will be the new smash hit Seven has been needing from America along with a moderate performer of Once Upon a Time.
- Titanic will sink as fast as it comes
- AFL will rise in viewers thanks to being LIVE and will help Seven's Saturday share by a few % points.
- Downton will be down slightly but still dominant
- Talent will be down but not too much while X Factor will be up
- DOND will be cancelled by mid-year due to declining ratings, replaced by new game show hosted by Larry Emdur.
- Sports Fever will be cancelled after 4 weeks
- Seven will win total people, 18-49's, 25-54's and over 55's but will lose the younger demo to *shock horror* Nine.

Nine:
- Nine News will win Sydney but fall elsewhere while Today will again win the East Coast but by a whisker.
- Excess Baggage will be just that for Nine and the stripped programming won't perform to what Nine thinks it will.
- Tricky Business will perform enough to get a 2nd season but be labelled the "Rafters Clone"
- Mornings will cause an impact to both The Circle and The Morning Show but TMS will still win
- The Voice will premiere strongly and be one of Nine's best performers of 2012
- Underbelly will be down year on year while Beaconsfield will get 1.6m
- The Olympics will bring Nine a stronger success in the 2nd half of 2012 giving Big Brother BIG ratings early on but then the novelty will wear off quickly and it will drop to sub 1m.
- Nine will win the 16-39 demo but lose the rest. They will make some ground off Seven but not enough.

Ten:
- Breakfast will struggle for a while but gradually start building and eat into both Today's and Sunrise's figures.
- The Project will get so low that TEN decides its time to bring back Neighbours and strip Masterchef at 7pm again.
- YTT will get highish ratings for the first few weeks and then slip below 1m before improving for the finale.
- Homeland and New Girl will become TEN's new hits
- TEN's main channel will continue to slide in the first half of 2012 but creep up with help from the new CEO with fresh ideas. They will come third in all demos. Eleven on the other hand will become the #1 digital channel of 2012.
- A New reality format will be created.

So basically Seven will have a lower year but still be quite dominant winning 35 out of the 40 weeks, Nine will win 5, TEN 0. Nine will take the young demo, 16-39 thanks to its endless amount of reality but will lose the rest including total people to Seven.

Prediction on overall % for 2012

Seven - 30.2
Nine 28.6
TEN 20.3
ABC 15.3
SBS 5.6

Edited by greysfan, 01 January 2012 - 06:02 PM.


OFFLINE   Mr. J #9

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:06 PM

It will be one of tens worst years ever across the board. They have just had a shocking year and don't seem to be doing much about it. 9 will improve especially when the Olympics are included but it will be another year of 7 domination.

I think it will be a year of high profile flops while smaller investments and imports take off.
YTT, excess baggage, mornings, breakfast, The Voice, Reef Doctors. All big flops. Loser, Rafters, Underbelly and Masterchef will have huge declines. The more we find out about Tricky Business the lesser likely I think it can work.

DWTS, Block, farmer, MKR, W&L, offspring, geek, Downton will all do about the same.

Celeb apprentice, AGT and X factor will all have decent increases.

New Girl, Big Brother, homeland, titanic will be the hits.


OFFLINE   Hornberger #10

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:10 PM

- AFL will rise in viewers thanks to being LIVE and will help Seven's Saturday share by a few % points.

AFL viewers will rise but those extra viewers will be watching on Fox Sports not Seven.

OFFLINE   Reuder7 #11

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:10 PM


New Girl, Big Brother, homeland, titanic will be the hits.


I really don't know about New Girl. It looks funny, but I think Ten have done a woeful job of promoting it. 3 clips from the show, with 1 not even funny, is just not enough especially when the schedule is to bare.

OFFLINE   greysfan #12

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:25 PM

AFL viewers will rise but those extra viewers will be watching on Fox Sports not Seven.


No i disagree. Sure there will be an increase on FOX but I think they will rise on Saturdays in particular because of being on Seven and as shown based on year by year figures a LIVE match on a Friday is more likely to attract more viewers than a match on delay. So that i am sticking by my prediction.

OFFLINE   Matlock #13

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:25 PM


I really don't know about New Girl. It looks funny, but I think Ten have done a woeful job of promoting it. 3 clips from the show, with 1 not even funny, is just not enough especially when the schedule is to bare.

Its been a hit in the States, so I guess TEN is hoping that the word has spread down under.

- The Voice will premiere strongly and be one of Nine's best performers of 2012

This is the one show I am really looking forward to so I hope you're right! :thumbsup: :D

Edited by tmorgan96, 01 January 2012 - 06:26 PM.


OFFLINE   Qarlo #14

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:27 PM

Deal Or No Deal will be axed in 2012 and replaced with a new game show.

Ten will perform even worse than 2011, same with MasterChef.

Randling will flop.

Nine and ABC will go up in yearly ratings share. Ten will go down.

OFFLINE   MATTB #15

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 06:53 PM

TEN – Will still struggle and won’t get anywhere near beating Nine or Seven

SEVEN – Ratings will fall slightly although they will once again take it out.

NINE – Ratings will be up although not enough to regain the lead.

WIN - Nine Perth and Adelaide will be re-branded to the WIN in late 2012 (once affiliation agreements end). WIN will increasingly change Nine's daytime programming schedules although will bring back the afternoon news in late January. The Block will air at 7pm.

Young Talent Time – Will get big numbers for the first 3 weeks and slowly will decline. Eventually it will not renew after one season.

The Block – Success as always although numbers will be slightly down from last year. (1.0-1.2 nightly)

Big Brother – Massive ratings for the first 2 weeks then people will remember why they switched off in the first place. Will be renewed for another season.

Mornings – Perform at an average rate. May get a rare win over TMS.

Today – Stronger numbers. Will win in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane(only just).

Sunrise - Ratings won't be as high as 2011

Nine News – Wins in Sydney and Melbourne. Adelaide will perform a lot better although will be beaten by 7News. Perth won’t get any overhaul anytime soon until at least late December.

Excess Baggage – Will be shifted to new later time slots after a week and eventually end up on GO!

Biggest Loser – Numbers still low although good enough for Ten.

Breakfast – Will struggle to get viewers from day one and won’t recover. Ten will keep it going hoping it will pick up but will give it the axe by mid 2013

ACA – Low ratings. They will attempt to get viewers back with an overhaul around February/ March

The Apprentice – Perform with good results.

Masterchef – People have had enough of cooking shows. They won’t be rushing to renew it for 2013

Amazing Race Australia – Perform reasonably good, no less or no more then 2011

Hey Hey It’s Saturday – Will be back for one special episode, will get big numbers (1.6-1.7). Nine may air more specials throughout the year to boost their week’s ratings hoping it will pull them over the line. Will never be the same format nor return in permanent time slot.

Tricky Business – Not a hit like Nine is hoping but it’ll be renewed for another season.
Matt.B

OFFLINE   Mr. J #16

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 07:38 PM

Mornings – Perform at an average rate. May get a rare win over TMS.

If it gets a rare win over TMS I think it will be a big success.

OFFLINE   joshie_j #17

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 10:13 PM

Nine:
2 Broke Girls won't premiere well but will slowly increase with numerous encores on GO!
Beaconsfield will be a massive hit, as will Howzat. The Great Mint Swindle will flop.
Big Brother will generate a huge amount of buzz and become the most talked-about show of 2012, however it will only perform with the younger demos and won't hit the mark with the oldies.
The Block will maintain 2011's ratings and start off especially well compared to last year as it took a little while to fire at first.
Celebrity Apprentice won't hit the highs of last year but still be a decent performer. Last year's casting set the bar too high and viewers will be disappointed.
Excess Baggage will attract Celebrity Apprentice numbers.
Farmer Wants a Wife will have its last season.
Great Barrier Reef will perform well and will completely outdo Earthflight which will flop.
Mornings won't last and Kerri-Anne will be back by the end of the year.
Olympics will continue to rate fine but ratings will be nothing like Beijing.
The Voice will do decently.
Tricky Business won't be a smash but will hover around the million mark.
Two and a Half Men will drop slightly.
Underbelly will continue to fall.


Seven:
Amazing Race Australia will drop but still perform well with the younger demos.
A Place to Call Home will premiere strongly but viewers will get sick of the genre.
Australia's Got Talent will maintain its current figures.
Desperate Housewives will struggle but ratings will skyrocket for the series final.
Downton Abbey won't hit the highs of last year and will hover around the million mark.
GCB will be the highest rated new US drama but Revenge will flop.
Grey's Anatomy will do decently if put at 9.30.
My Kitchen Rules will drop slightly but still do well.
Packed to the Rafters will maintain its current figures but Winners and Losers will really struggle this season.
Pictures of You will bomb.
Please Marry My Boy will be a hit.
Sports Fever will flop.

Ten:
Breakfast will bomb.
Homeland will flop.
MasterChef will struggle and sink to about 1.3m an episode.
New Girl will perform decently.
Offspring will maintain its current figures.
Puberty Blues will be Ten's best performing show of the year.
Reef Doctors will perform decently and will be renewed for a second season.
The Project's ratings will lift slightly.
Young Talent Time will premiere strongly and be a consistent performer amongst the younger demos.

OFFLINE   Matlock #18

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 10:26 PM

Almost everything you put down under Seven and Ten I would say the opposite. 'Please Marry My Boy' a hit? If thats the case I'm moving to America. Even they have better taste for TV.

OFFLINE   Racer25 #19

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 10:35 PM

Seven
Will be hard pressed to fall dramatically far from this season and will easily win 18-49 and 25-54. US drama's will all either decline or perform with tepid results. Revenge and GCB will start strong and fade to 900k. A Place to Call Home will do well and be surprisingly different from Rafters. Winners and Losers will slip to 1.1m. MKR will slide year on year, as will X Factor. AGT will be the network's No.1 program across all measurements. Reality will start to fade though as Please Marry and Geek fall to pathetic figures.

Nine
Will have a stronger second placing this year but won't come close to knocking Seven, simply being too far behind to really catch up in the space of one year. Stripped reality will be a success. Block will burst out of the gate but won't pick up towards the finale. It will still remain as Nine's best program though. Underbelly and Tricky Business will have ok-results but only Beaconsfield will knock it out of the park. 2 Broke Girls will start better than previous comedies have on Nine. Top Gear will be pushed to GO! permanently. Hamish and Andy will have another mediocre season. Big Brother will start strongly and hold enough of its audience for a second season.

Ten
Homeland will start well and then fall away by episode four. Puberty Blues will have a name change and get lower figures than a rising Offspring. Biggest Loser will struggle for renewal by season's end and MC will slip a little, though nowhere near enough for cancellation to be talked about. The Renovators will be quietly cancelled over the Easter break. The Good Wife will be shipped to One, Glee to Eleven. New Girl will boost Modern Family and secure a strong Tuesday for Ten. Saturdays will be horrific and fall to the 10%. Could win 16-39 though if enough of Seven's younger audience leave for Ten/Nine.

ABC
Randling will start very slowly and be pushed to another night where it will eventually find success. Gruen will move to 8:30 and crush the commercials once again. Drama will perform better and won't be dumped on Thursday nights. Grand Designs will slip from its strong 2011 figures. 7:30 will suffer in the first half before picking up pace as political events with the ALP boost its viewership.

OFFLINE   Matlock #20

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 10:37 PM

Are the renovaters returning? I thought it was confirmed they were cancelled.

Also, I agree with you on Top Gear moving to GO! permanently. Suits the channel better plus gives Nine a chance to rework its Tuesday nights, which are hands down their worst night of the week.

Edited by tmorgan96, 01 January 2012 - 10:39 PM.